U.S. Officials Withheld and Altered Homeless Data
After months of delays, HUD finally revealed the state of homelessness. The reality both grim and incomplete.
We have wanted to write this article for 7 months but we were not allowed to. For decades, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has published data on homelessness at the end of each year. In 2025, the agency decided to break with tradition and refused to share this information publicly. Some guessed that the current administration was worried that a weak economy and an inability to produce new housing would drive up homelessness, creating another bad press cycle for the president. But this data is critical for determining state funding for homelessness, shaping policy decisions, and offering a national barometer on housing. After countless emails to HUD and conversations with other organizations publishing this data, we are finally able to share HUD’s findings on homelessness in America.
Welcome to the The Dividing Line from American Inequality.
These visuals are all interactive and available with more information below.
At least 744,445 people experienced homelessness in the US on a given night in 2025, a 3.3% decrease from the record-breaking high of 2024. This is the first time homelessness has gone down year-over-year since 2016, outside of the 2020 pandemic that saw an influx in emergency programs as well as challenges for actually counting the homeless population.
But even with these published national numbers, HUD has completed erased gender data. In previous Annual Homeless Assessment Reports (such as the 2023 report), HUD broke down homelessness demographics by gender, showing exact statistics for men, women, transgender, gender-questioning, and non-binary individuals. In the 2025 report, HUD scrubbed all references to gender entirely. National advocacy groups, like the National Alliance to End Homelessness, pointed out that this omission hides the stark levels of disparity and rising homelessness rates among women.
The headline HUD heavily pushed was that homelessness decreased by 3.3% nationwide, but one of the most significant measures—chronic homelessness—rose to its highest figure on record (+2.1%). By focusing heavily on the collective 3.3% drop, HUD managed to downplay the fact that individual and chronic homelessness are worse than they have ever been.
One of the most shocking numbers found buried in the report is that 1 in 5 of all homeless people in America are under the age of 18. The number has increased 20% since 2023 and the number of homeless students has more than doubled in the past twenty years. A huge reason family and child homelessness is spiking is that families with kids are being actively squeezed out of federal housing assistance. In 2009, 52% of all federal Housing Choice Vouchers (Section 8) went to households with children. By recent counts, that number has plummeted to just 39%.
But young people are not alone. Older adults and seniors (64+ population) are one of the fastest-growing segments of the unhoused population. Inadequate support from Medicare or senior housing programs, underemployment, and lack of savings have left many aging seniors with few financial safety nets.
Location and Restrictive Housing Supply
Over the last decade, California (66K homeless people), New York (57k), and Oregon (14K) have seen the largest raw increases in homelessness numbers. But in terms of percentage growth, the biggest increases occurred in Vermont (122%), Rhode Island (114%), and Oregon (106%). Adjusted for population Oregon , New York, and Vermont, show the largest increases per 10,000 people. 2 out of 3 states since 2015 have seen a percent increase in homelessness, reflecting rising rents, slashed federal safety programs, and an affordable housing supply that can’t keep up with demand.
One of the leading factors causing homelessness to rise is a lack of new housing supply. Housing development is at its lowest since 1975, and rents continue to be unaffordable for a record-high 22.7 million Americans. Ownership is now out of the question for many. Historically, a typical American home would cost 5 times the median household income to purchase. But today that baseline has shattered to an unprecedented 7.12 times income—leapfrogging even the height of the catastrophic 2000s housing bubble.
On a more local basis, different states point to different reasons beyond a limited housing supply and rising housing costs. Each state in the HUD report was asked to provide details on the causes of why homelessness rose in those areas. 5 core themes emerged.
Housing Market Pressures: Areas with restrictive zoning laws, lack of low-cost unit construction, and high demand experienced the sharpest rises in homelessness. The GAO notes that every $100 median rent increase in a region correlates to a 9% rise in homelessness.
Economic Inequality & Job Loss: Regions heavily impacted by localized job losses, underemployment, and economic inequality lacked the financial buffers necessary for lower-income residents to avoid displacement.
Migration and Displacement: Rapid influxes of international migrants or climate refugees often strained local municipal resources, temporary shelters, and housing capacity before individuals can secure permanent work and housing.
Weather and Geography: Unsheltered homelessness was statistically higher in urban areas with temperate climates, which drew unhoused individuals seeking to survive outdoors year-round.
Policy and Service Enforcement: Local fluctuations reflected the strictness of vagrancy ordinances, eviction execution, and the availability of emergency, transitional, or permanent supportive housing.
Out of Left Field
However, in HUD Secretary Scott Turner’s report that he wrote to accompany the HUD data, the Secretary decided not to focus on rising rents and a desire to build more housing, but instead about another issue. “The data is clear that the status quo of ‘housing first’ has failed to meaningfully reduce homelessness, resulting in crisis levels of people living on the streets,” Turner said. “HUD is restoring its programs to advance recovery and self-sufficiency and to ensure that taxpayer-funded benefits serve American families.” The HUD announcement also took the time to note that homelessness is up 27 percent since January 2013 and that any decreases in the 2025 report were “attributable to decreases in Sanctuary Cities.”
The words “sanctuary,” “sanctuary cities,” or “housing first” do not appear in the HUD report. These are conclusions that Turner decided to draw himself.
Breaking Down the Trend
Depending on how you slice the numbers, whether by raw counts or per capita rates, the story of American homelessness shifts dramatically. When we break out the scatter plot, we can see 3 distinct clusters.
The Flashpoints: Hawaii, New York, and Oregon. These 3 states have staggering per capita numbers and sharp homelessness rate increases. Hawaii presents a unique paradox: while its overall trajectory is technically dipping, its per capita crisis remains painfully elevated above almost everywhere else.
The Rising Tide: Massachusetts, California, Vermont, Washington, Alaska, and Colorado. Right in the middle of the plot, a dangerous second tier emerges. These handful of states that are largely left-leaning form a tight cluster. Their unhoused populations may sit in the mid-range, but they have seen a massive, post-2015 surge.
The Cool Down: Georgia, Wyoming, and South Carolina. Down in the bottom-left corner sits a rare glimmer of hope. This cluster of blue states highlights where homelessness has been driven down significantly over the last decade.
Change of homelessness per capita (10k). The bottom right quadrant of the scatter plot indicates a large increase, while the top left quadrant would indicate a large decrease. ‘Increase’ and ‘Decrease’ labels are based on raw counts, not per capita.
Who’s Making Progress?
Houston, Texas is one city that has significantly decreased their homelessness population – down 64% in the last dozen years. Prior to this success, Houston was designated as a “priority city” by HUD, and is now the poster-child in the fight against homelessness. Its success rides on The Coalition for the Homeless, an organization that consists of over 100 non-profits, Houston & Harris County, and neighboring counties that work together to offer housing and connect people to employment opportunities. Houston also has less zoning laws then other cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York, making it possible to build affordable housing without NIMBY opposition. More housing development, along with collaboration and communication between multiple organizations is the key to Houston’s success.
Denver, Colorado is another city that’s successfully decreased homelessness, moving more than 800 people indoors and cutting street homelessness by 45% last year. They used a highly strategized approach with real-time data to match specific people to specific housing resources. Also Minnesota, who was able to pass new legislation that helped loosen strict zoning laws that allowed for more development and multi-family homes.
Evictions, Mental Health, and a System Designed to Fail
Public perception often treats homelessness as a moral failing, assuming the people on the street are there because of severe mental health issues, or addiction caused by poor personal choices. But in reality, it’s often the system that leaves them behind, starting a chain reaction of complications. Every single year, roughly 3.9 million people—including 1.5 million children—are hit with an eviction judgment. A full-time worker earning the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour cannot afford a two-bedroom apartment in any state. 53% of people living in shelters are working but are unable to afford housing.
For those who don’t have a job, there’s even more of an uphill battle before even thinking about affording rent. Not having a permanent address when employers require one to apply, having access to technology and facilities to prepare for an interview, or the ability to afford transportation to a job location all are unique issues.
Data from HUD comes from a point in time estimate where volunteers gather together on a single night in January and walk around on the street to count as many unhoused people as we can. We’ve written about our experience participating in this wild process. The agency then uses these inputs to estimate an overall count for the country. Each city has a limited number of volunteers, which limits the ability to find unhoused individuals and creates inconsistent data collection.
A HUD report on point-in-time count inconsistencies cites a study of shelter users in New York, and found 31% of people unhoused slept in places classified as “Not-Visible” the night of the count. HUD also does not permit the inclusion of people that are staying with friends or family due to economic hardship or being “doubled up”. The Department of Education estimated there are possibly over 1 million unhoused students in the US, drastically lower than the HUD estimate of 133,962 people under the age of 18 who are unhoused.
Transparency and accountability
Our cities are deliberately designed to shield us from poverty, creating bubbles of comfort that obscure the struggles of others. Instead of reacting with fear or judgment towards someone unhoused, we should look for solutions. Homelessness is a societal failure, not an individual one, and ignoring the most marginalized people only deepens the systemic issues we all live within. More affordable housing, increased wages, and strong support systems are all proven ways we can fight homelessness. The downward trend this year is a positive sign of progress, and let’s hope we can ride that wave going forward.
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Highlighting Rising Authors
I’m launching a new initiative to help authors showcase their work. I have a book coming out next year and saw how much it takes a village to really pull one off. We’ve highlighted Simone Stolzoff’s recent book, How to Now Know, and now we’re excited to share Allison Tait’s upcoming book, The House That Family Money Built. The book is about how the American legal system actively engineers wealth inequality. It exposes how credit and debt laws extract money from low-income families to enrich dynastic ones—tracing the rules, geographies, and narratives that make this exploitation appear natural.
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I spoke with Rachel Lerman at the Washington Post this week about the Great Generational Wealth Transfer and why billions of dollars from Boomers are going to pass down to those who are already wealthy, likely embedding inequality even further in this country. Gift link.
Yikes - of course they did. UGH!
I was a resident manager of a transitional housing apt. bldg. That's a 2 year program for people who've been homeless so they can become settled and then move to permanent housing. It's a thin line between stability and disaster. Accidents, domestic violence, PTSD suffering veterans, job loss for older workers, mental illness. Plus the attitude of the well off and working class people who don't want to see their own vulnerability that the homeless should pick themselves up by their own bootstraps. Irony is that adage is meant to demonstrate its impossibility, a metaphor to show no one can go it alone; we need each other.
A question: Since the southern states have the lowest wages, the lowest levels of education, the lowest levels of government support, etc. why would they be highest in low income housing? I suspect their census counts of the homeless are low. Accurate counts are difficult anywhere. Simply don't try too hard to find them, and voila! A low rate of reported homelessness. BTW, people in transitional housing are included in the homeless stats, so the more there are of those, the higher the reported rate. The fewer there are of those, as I suspect is true for the less generous states, the lower the homeless stats. Is any of this actually so?