Homelessness hits all-time high, doubles from 2021
770,000 people were homeless in America in 2024. That is a whopping 18% increase from 2023, the largest percentage increase since 2007
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Homelessness is the highest it has ever been in America. The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) just released its report showing that more than 770,000 people were homeless in America in 2024. That is a whopping 18% increase from 2023, the largest percentage increase since 2007.
These numbers likely drastically understate the severity of the issue — I should know, because I helped collect these numbers myself for NYC.
Worst of all, homelessness has more than doubled since 2021.
The two primary drivers of the increase are a soaring number of migrants seeking asylum, coupled with rising rents that have far outpaced wages. As pandemic-era programs like rent freezes and cash assistance dried up, people were evicted and left out in the street.
Migration is the leading cause of rising homelessness
The HUD report specifically called out migration as a key driver of the rise in homelessness over the past year. “The rise in overall homelessness was a result of the work to shelter a rising number of asylum seekers coming into communities… Migration has a particularly notable impact on family homelessness, which rose 39% from 2023-24.”
One of the key indicators that migration has been part of the rise is that the number of Latinos experiencing homelessness grew by almost a third, nearly twice the national rate.
Dennis Culhane, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania who has long advised the government on homelessness data, said that about three-quarters of the increase in homelessness occurred in the four states hit hardest by asylum seekers — New York, Illinois, Colorado and Massachusetts — along with Hawaii, where wildfires in Maui fueled mass displacement. Absent migration and natural disasters, he said, homelessness would likely have risen by single digits.
Since the report came out, some officials have pushed back saying that the data doesn’t reflect the Biden Administration’s mid-year push to reduce border crossings, which decreased unlawful crossings by 60%.
On the positive side, homelessness among veterans has dropped to the lowest numbers ever recorded. The number fell 8% to 32,882 homeless vets in 2024. Veterans were the only group that HUD tracks which saw a decline in homelessness.
Illinois saw the largest year-over-year increase of any state at 116%. Much of this was driven by a 207% increase in homelessness in the city of Chicago, a city both struggling with a flood of migrants and expensive housing. In 2023 and 2024, Texas governor Greg Abbot sent thousands of migrants to Chicago.
Homelessness in New York and Massachusetts both increased 53% from 2023. Both states have had massive increases in migrants, skyrocketing rental prices, and stagnant wages. Homelessness in Hawaii also increased 87%, largely due to the devastation of the Maui fires.
Rising rents, flat wages
Rents have far outpaced wages across America and the housing supply has not kept up. Economists estimate that the US is currently short 4 million homes for what we would need to house every person and keep prices at a reasonable level. Construction for new homes is chugging along at a glacial pace as zoning laws, the high cost of labor and materials, and regulatory restrictions have stymied many housing-first efforts.
In places like New York City, a 5% increase in rent has been found to increase homelessness by an additional 3,000 residents.
More than a third of people experiencing homelessness — 274,000 — sleep in cars, encampments and tents under bridges. Sleeping outside of shelters is dangerous because it increases both the risk of violence and of illness.
In the chart below, the red line shows the median wage for full-time workers versus rental costs indexed in the early 1980s. This shows that over the last 4 decades, wages have remained relatively flat while rental prices have steadily increased. As long as the red line stayed above the blue line, costs were manageable. But in 2021, not only does the blue line for rental costs jump above the red line for wages, the slope of the line also increases.
“The number of extremely affordable rental units has plummeted in recent years, and this ties back into a housing shortage. Where does that housing shortage squeeze the most? It's going to squeeze the most at the very bottom of the property ladder. Landlords who previously offered very affordable units have seen a great deal of demand for those units. They're able to raise the rents. And so we've seen a lot of people fall off the bottom of the rental market, and that's led to a ton of pressure, especially in expensive markets, and I think in many ways the diagnosis is quite clear that we have this supply-and-demand imbalance,” economist Ben Keys explains.
Seeing the crisis firsthand
I just had the chance to drive around in southern California with a nonprofit as we delivered blankets, jackets, and food to homeless people near the US border. Many of the people were struggling with mental health issues, addiction, alcoholism, but others had just fallen on hard times and were laid off from jobs. While some of the people there were newly homeless, many had been living on the streets for years. I spoke with one man named George who had been living on the street near a bus bench for almost a decade. He graciously accepted the blanket, though we later saw that another homeless man had stolen it from him. The temperatures in this area swing from 100 degrees during the day to 20 degree at night. I knew George had made it this long surviving out in the cold nights, but with more and more homeless people around him, the resources were dwindling, the challenges were growing, and the societal pressures were mounting.
Back in New York City last January, I helped collect the numbers as a volunteer for the point-in-time (PIT) count that now show we have more than 770,000 homeless people in America. As I wrote about back then, the PIT likely drastically undercounts the homeless population in America. For example, the NYC Department of Education estimates that there are 119,300 homeless students in New York City; whereas HUD estimates that there are 103,200 homeless people in the entire state of New York. The math doesn’t add up.
The Path Forward
The #1 solution for America’s homeless problem is to build more housing. Immigration is an essential part of America’s growth, innovation, and moral values. Stopping the supply of people is not nearly as important as increasing the supply of housing. While it is easy to say ‘build more housing’, here are some specific ways to make that happen:
Legalize more apartment units: Policymakers need to update zoning laws to legalize the construction of more multi-family apartment units. Restrictive single-family zoning regulations, which currently cover about 75% of residential land, limits dense development that could house more people. Minneapolis and Oregon have successfully implemented zoning reforms to allow duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes in traditionally single-family zones, increasing housing stock. New zoning changes are expected to bring 80,000 new units to New York City alone, a city with over 100,000 homeless.
Regulatory Streamlining: Streamlining the approval processes for new housing developments would reduce the number of required permits and consolidating review timelines. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that regulatory costs account for approximately 25% of the price of a new home. Simplifying regulations could lower construction costs and accelerate the development of affordable housing. Cities like San Diego have seen success with "by-right" zoning, which allows for faster project approvals, helping to increase the housing supply and reduce homelessness.
Preventing Evictions: We need to implement stronger eviction protections and rent control measures to keep people housed. Strengthening legal aid for tenants facing eviction, as seen in New York City’s Right to Counsel law, can reduce evictions by up to 77%. During the pandemic, these laws helped millions of Americans stay in their homes.
Supporting Housing Voucher Holders: We can enhance the effectiveness of housing vouchers by enforcing anti-discrimination laws and increasing landlord participation. Currently, many voucher holders struggle to find landlords willing to accept them due to bias or bureaucratic hurdles. Strengthening and enforcing "source of income" discrimination laws, as done in New Jersey and Washington, D.C., could improve acceptance rates. According to a 2018 HUD study, improving voucher utilization could house an additional 2.6 million families, significantly reducing homelessness and housing instability.
Addressing The Intersection Of Crises: Walking through a New York City street, the effects of substance use, mental illness, and homelessness are impossible to ignore. A key factor that improves outcomes for unhoused individuals, as well as those struggling with substance use disorders and mental health issues, is stable housing. Organizations like Fountain House play a vital role by implementing social practice in clubhouses worldwide, ensuring individuals receive community support and psychosocial services like housing and employment. In addition to more support to a holistic approach, cities and states must act urgently to reinforce and stabilize the housing network. Strengthening these initiatives will help reduce substance use, severe mental illness, and other health challenges among the unhoused.
The numbers reported by HUD are not representative of the total population of people experiencing homelessness in a given year. They are PIT (or point in time counts) and measure the number of homeless people on a given day. Since a ton of people float in and out of homelessness over time, the actual number is likely much higher.
Thank you for this essay, it gives a bit of hope to those of us fighting to convince our governments to build more housing. You write:
“Minneapolis and Oregon have successfully implemented zoning reforms to allow duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes in traditionally single-family zones, increasing housing stock.”
I’m happy that we in Oregon have removed many zoning restrictions, but has it actually increased housing stock already? Not sure where to find answers to that question.
Finally, I want to report that a large-ish low income housing development opened a few months ago right next to my upscale neighborhood. I have heard zero complaints. I walk by there several times a week, and the worst I have seen is a dinged-up car parked out front. NIMBY’s should spend time seeing real-world results instead of imagining some invading horde of plague-stricken extras from a Dickens novel.